The Los Angeles Lakers are projected to be the NBA's biggest letdown for the 2026-27 season. ESPN analysis points to a significant tumble following LeBron James' exit and a complete roster revamp by coach JJ Redick. The team's recent form, including a 110-115 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on May 12, 2026, and a 1-4 record in their last five games, underscores the current challenges.
Why are the Lakers projected to disappoint?
LeBron James' departure created a massive two-way hole. He averaged 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game last season. Coach JJ Redick then overhauled the roster, trading veterans Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes. Ayton's eight rebounds and a block per game were key for the team's defensive rating. The Lakers lost six of their top ten field goal scorers from the previous campaign. James was second with 473 field goals, while Ayton (403 FG) and Hachimura (307 FG) also ranked highly. Their outside shooting took a major hit too. Kennard and Hachimura led the team in three-point percentage at 44.8% and 44.3% respectively.
What specific problems will the team face?
Offensively, the loss of primary facilitators will hurt. James and Smart combined for 617 assists last season, even with Luka Doncic dishing out 530 of his own. Defenses can now pressure Doncic and Austin Reaves more aggressively. This likely increases the team's turnover percentage. The offensive rating and effective field goal percentage are expected to drop significantly. You can track the team's offensive and defensive metrics on our detailed [stats](/stats) page.
Defense is another major concern. Walker Kessler, with a career 113.4 defensive rating, is a solid addition. He defended 1,144 shots and held opponents to 54.37% shooting. But he alone cannot anchor Coach Redick's system. The Lakers' 2025-26 Four Factors data showed their overall defense and slow-paced offense needed work. The current roster lacks the personnel to fix those issues quickly.
How does Luka Doncic fit into this forecast?
The team is being built specifically around the 27-year-old superstar. Doncic is projected to lead the Lakers and the NBA in points. However, the supporting cast has been stripped bare. ESPN stated that if Los Angeles cannot build on its last two 50-win seasons, the handling of James' exit will be questioned again. The pressure is squarely on Doncic to carry an offense with fewer proven scoring options. This puts him at risk of increased defensive attention every single night.
New additions like Ziaire Williams are respected, but they are not difference-makers on defense. The roster construction appears unbalanced, leaning heavily on Doncic's creation. With a tough schedule ahead, fans can monitor the upcoming challenges on our [fixtures](/fixtures) page. The forecast suggests a difficult season where the Lakers struggle on both ends of the court. Their recent form, losing four of their last five games, already hints at these underlying problems.
